C.W. Copeland & Associate presents
Weekly Economic Update for the Week of September 21, 2009
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- Norman Cousins
Healthy retail sales numbers. While a 10.6% jump in auto sales spurred the 2.7% August leap in this category, retail sales were up 0.6% for the month with cars and gasoline purchases factored out. Sales were still 5.8% below August 2008 levels.1
How tame is inflation now? The Consumer Price Index ascended 0.4% in August, according to the Labor Department, after a flat July. But the real story was year-over-year: CPI fell 1.5% from August 2008 to August 2009, influenced by the huge drop in retail gas prices. Core CPI rose 1.4% over that same period, the smallest rise in more than five years.2
Manufacturing may berecovering. The Federal Reserve announced that industrial output increased for the second straight month in August. The 0.8% gain beat the estimate of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who forecast a 0.6% increase. Producer prices climbed an unexpected 1.7% last month (core PPI rose 0.2%) and business inventories shrank by 1.0% in July.2,3
Housing starts rise 1.5%. The statistic mostly reflects multifamily construction. August apartment starts were up 35.3%; single-family starts fell 3.0%.4
Gold & oil advance. While the dollar came back from multi-month lows against the yen and euro last week, gold hit a new 2009 closing high Wednesday ($1,020.20) and settled at $1,010.30 Friday. Oil futures ended the week at $72.04 per barrel.5
Stocks climb 2% higher. Last week, the economic data stream added credence to the summer rally. The S&P 500 came in at 1,068.30, gaining 2.45% for the week. The DJIA closed at a new 2009 high on Friday: 9,820.20. The NASDAQ finished at 2,132.86 Friday.6
| % Change | Y-T-D | 1-Yr Avg | 5-Yr Avg | 10-Yr Avg |
| DJIA | +11.89 | -10.88 | -0.90 | -0.91 |
| NASDAQ | +35.25 | -3.01 | +2.33 | -2.57 |
| S&P 500 | +18.27 | -11.46 | -1.07 | -2.00 |
| Real Yield | 9/18 | 1 Yr Ago | 5 Yrs Ago | 10 Yrs Ago |
| 10YrTIPS | 1.68% | 1.94% | 1.85% | 4.06% |
(Source: CNNMoney.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 9/18/09)7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
Riddle of the week. You buy 10 shrubs. How can you plant them in five rows with four in each row?
Contact my office or see next week's Update for the answer.
Last week's riddle:Name three words in everyday English that begin with the letters "dw".
Last week's riddle answer: Any three of these five words will do: dwell, dwelling, dwarf, dweeb and dwindle.
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