Sunday, February 27, 2011

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE - February 21, 2011

INFLATION UP 0.4% FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH
The federal government's Consumer Price Index hasn't seen back-to-back increases of this magnitude since June-July 2008. As overall CPI rose 0.4% in January, core CPI rose 0.2% - the biggest increase in that indicator in 15 months. In addition, the Labor Department's Producer Price Index climbed 0.8% for January.1

CONFERENCE BOARD LEI TICKS UP 0.1%
January brought a tiny increase in the Conference Board's Leading Indicator Index. New manufacturing orders, consumer expectations and low interest rates were the indicators pushing the index into positive territory.2

RETAIL SALES, INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT DISAPPOINT
Blame the weather, not the shopper: the Commerce Department said retail sales were up 0.3% for January, underneath the 0.5% gain forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. On the upside, retail sales posted their seventh straight monthly gain. The weather also may have been a factor in the 0.1% retreat in U.S. industrial production last month. The Federal Reserve did revise December's gain in that indicator from 0.8% to 1.2%.3,4

HOUSING STARTS UP 14.6%
This is the biggest jump in new construction in four months, according to the Commerce Department. While building permits fell 10.4% from December levels, that comes on the heels of a 15.3% rise in December as firms rushed to get permits before building code changes took effect for 2011 in several states.5

STOCKS ON PACE FOR A FINE FEBRUARY
Last week continued the pattern we've seen recently, with the Dow calmly gaining between 10-100 points on the typical trading day. The numbers for the week: DJIA, +0.96% to 12,391.25; NASDAQ, +0.87% to 2,833.95; S&P 500, +1.04% to 1,343.01.6

THIS WEEK: U.S. financial markets are closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. Tuesday we get the December Case-Shiller home price index and the Conference Board's February assessment of consumer confidence, plus 4Q earnings from Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Macy's and Barnes & Noble. Wednesday offers data on January existing home sales and 4Q results from Priceline. Thursday brings new data on new home sales, durable goods orders and earnings from Kohl's, Sears, Target and General Motors. Friday, we have the University of Michigan's final February consumer sentiment survey and 4Q results from JC Penney.

% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
+7.03
+19.23
+2.30
+1.55
NASDAQ
+6.83
+26.42
+4.83
+2.22
S&P 500
+6.79
+21.35
+0.87
+0.50
REAL YIELD
2/18 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
1.25%
1.48%
2.03%
3.52%
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.

WEEKLY QUOTE
"There are no problems we cannot solve together, and very few that we can solve by ourselves."
- Lyndon B. Johnson

WEEKLY TIP
It is comforting to have an emergency fund - a lump sum roughly equivalent to 6 months of normal living expenses. That lump sum could even be invested in an interest-earning account that allows you easy access.

WEEKLY RIDDLE
Tim hands a friend $63 using six bills, yet none of them are dollar bills. How is he able to do this?

Last week's riddle:
You answer me all the time, yet I never ask you questions. What am I?

Last week's answer:
Your phone.


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This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the "NYSE") and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions - the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. If assistance is needed in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.
6 - cnbc.com/id/41670795 [2/18/11]

Regards,

C.W. Copeland
C.W. Copeland & Associates
Financial Consulting Services
404.567.3275 (direct)
404.601.9534 (fax)
www.PhDinMoney.com









WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE - February 14, 2011

AN END IN SIGHT FOR FANNIE & FREDDIE
Friday, the Obama administration presented a plan to wind down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by 2018, with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner citing “very broad consensus” that the government should play “a much smaller role” in the housing market. So what will replace them? The plan puts three options before Congress. In one option, the government would leave the mortgage market save for the VHA, FHA and other existing agencies. Two other options would set up “re-insurance” programs. A limited version would guarantee private mortgages only in economic or real estate downturns; another would provide a backstop for mortgage investments already guaranteed by private insurers. All three options would pave the way for higher mortgage costs. The Treasury and HUD have also suggested phasing in a short-term requirement for borrowers as Fannie and Freddie are unwound: homebuyers would have to put 10% down for any mortgage backed by the GSEs.1,2

CONSUMERS FEEL MORE UPBEAT
The latest Reuters/University of Michiganconsumer sentiment survey is in, and the initial February reading is 75.1, an improvement from the final January mark of 74.2. This is the best reading since June 2009. The survey’s current conditions index rose 5.0% to 86.8 – the highest it has been in 37 months.3

GOLD ADVANCES, OIL PULLS BACK
Gold prices climbed 0.86% last week to settle at $1,359.90 an ounce Friday – it was the best week for the precious metal YTD. Oil and natural gas prices fell to their lowest levels since November on Friday after Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak announced his resignation; natural gas futures fell 9.28% on the week, and oil slipped 3.88% for the week to settle at $85.58 per barrel on the NYMEX.4

DJIA CLOSES AT HIGHEST MARK SINCE 6/16/08
The Dow logged an eight-day winning streak from January 31 to February 9, and it has advanced in 10 of the past 11 weeks. The weekly performance? DJIA, +1.50% to 12,273.26; NASDAQ, +1.45% to 2,809.44; S&P 500, +1.39% to 1,329.15.5

THIS WEEK: Very little is scheduled for either Monday or Friday. Tuesday brings January retail sales numbers and a report on December business inventories, plus 4Q earnings from Dell, Barclays and Tesla. Wednesday offers the January Producer Price Index, the most recent FOMC minutes, reports on January housing starts and industrial output and 4Q results from Comcast and CBS. Thursday, we get the January Consumer Price Index, the Conference Board’s latest LEI, new initial claims numbers and earnings from Nordstrom.

% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
+6.01
+20.99
+2.48
+1.21
NASDAQ
+5.90
+29.03
+4.84
+1.28
S&P 500
+5.69
+23.24
+0.98
-0.00009
REAL YIELD
2/11 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
1.36%
1.47%
2.09%
3.52%
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.


WEEKLY QUOTE
“The spirit, the will to win, and the will to excel are the things that endure. These qualities are so much more important than the events that occur.”
– Vince Lombardi

WEEKLY TIP
Students who want to enter college this fall should complete the FAFSA early in 2011 to increase eligibility for student aid. After completing it, they should apply for scholarships as soon as possible.

WEEKLY RIDDLE
I never ask you questions, yet you answer me all the time. What am I?

Last week’s riddle:
You sit down to play chess. Out of the 16 pieces you have at your disposal, how many of them could be used to make your first move?

Last week’s answer:
Ten (eight pawns and two knights).


Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address.
We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.


This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. If assistance is needed with legal, accounting or other professional services, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Citations.
2 - cnbc.com/id/41529671 [2/11/11]
5 - cnbc.com/id/41537483 [2/11/11]

Regards,
C.W. Copeland
C.W. Copeland & Associates
Financial Consulting Services
404.567.3275 (direct)
404.601.9534 (fax)
www.PhDinMoney.com


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