C.W. Copeland & Associates presents
Weekly Economic Update for the Week of October 5, 2009
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Quote of the week."The possible's slow fuse is lit by the imagination."- Emily Dickinson
Big jump in consumer spending.The C.A.R.S. program drove a 1.3% increase in personal spending for August - the biggest monthly leap north in this category since August 2001. Personal wages went up 0.2% for the second straight month.1
Consumer worries persist. The jobless rate hit 9.8% for September, as employers cut 263,000 positions from payrolls. (The healthcare sector added 19,000 jobs last month.)2The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index came in at 53.1 for September, down from 54.5 for August.3
Manufacturing sector expands.The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index indicated growth in that sector for the second straight month, with a reading of 52.6. However, economists polled by Reuters had expected a 54.0 reading in September, up from last month's 52.9.4
Home prices rise, mortgage rates fall.The latest S&P Case-Shiller indexes showed home prices rising for the third month in a row in July (+1.6%). Freddie Mac's October 1 survey had interest rates for 30-year FRMs averaging 4.94% nationally.3,5
Oil starts the month impressively.Oil futures gained 5.95% last week; diesel and gasoline futures respectively gained 5.34% and 6.41%. (Retail pump prices averaged $2.47 per gallon of unleaded last week, compared to $3.60 per gallon a year ago.) In metals, gold and silver posted small weekly advances - gold rising 1.28% on the week, silver up 1.06%. In crops, sugar prices shot up 11.72% last week.6
Industry & jobs data impact stocks.The DJIA and S&P 500 both lost 1.84% last week; the NASDAQ slipped 2.05%. The economic calendar is light this coming week, with the ISM services index the most notable report.6
| % Change | Y-T-D | 1-Yr Avg | 5-Yr Avg | 10-Yr Avg |
| DJIA | +8.10 | -9.49 | -1.38 | -0.76 |
| NASDAQ | +29.87 | +3.61 | +1.09 | -2.52 |
| S&P 500 | +13.50 | -7.99 | -1.88 | -2.01 |
| Real Yield | 10/2 | 1 Yr Ago | 5 Yrs Ago | 10 Yrs Ago |
| 10YrTIPS | 1.54% | 2.17% | 1.83% | 4.14% |
(Source: CNNMoney.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 9/25/09)7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
Riddle of the week.What animal could become extinct worldwide, yet reappear about a year later?
Contact my office or see next week's Update for the answer.
Last week's riddle: It has keys that open no locks. Yet it lets you enter and create spaces. What is it?
Last week's riddle answer:A keyboard.
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